Rural Americans see tariffs as a long-term strategy to bolster national defense.

16 May 2025

Why do farmers support tariffs while at the same time acknowledging that tariffs hurt farm income?

Defense.

70% of farmers in a recent survey think tariffs will help agriculture in the long term:

In that same survey, 56% of farmers believe tariffs will hurt farm income.  This is consistent with the farmers I know.

Support for Chinese tariffs (though not tariffs on other countries) remains high, despite the pain they cause.

Why the disconnect?

Because we no longer grow the food we need and we don’t manufacture the goods we need to fight a war.

The vast majority of rural voters I know think we are already at war or soon will be

A common conversation that plays out is the debate on when historians, in hindsight, will peg the beginning of WW III. Was it when Trump was first elected? When Russia invaded the Ukraine? Was it when Hamas attacked Israel?

The Atlantic Council’s 2025 Global Foresight Survey indicated that 40% of respondents believed that there would be another world war by 2035. 

65% of respondents believed that China will attempt to retake Taiwan by force by 2035. 

45% believe that the U.S. and Russia will be in direct conflict by 2035. 

47% believe that the world will be divided into China-aligned and U.S.-aligned blocks by 2035.

The U.K. Foreign Secretary opined “it is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger and insecurity and instability in the world.  The lights are absolutely flashing red, as it were, on the global dashboard.”

The Guardian recently asked “Are we heading for another world war – or has it already started?”

If voters really think we will soon be at war with China, no cost is too great to wean ourselves off Chinese goods. 

What economists ignore is that decisions based on national defense never make economic sense.  From a purely economic view, we should have China make all of our fighter jets.

For many rural voters, it is not about bringing back jobs to the U.S.

No one in my rural township wants a factory to open up here.  When is the last time you heard someone say to their child that what they want for them when they grow up is a good paying union job in a factory where you will have two bosses?  Never. 

For the rural Michigan voter in particular, having a union boss in Flint or Detroit is simply a non-starter.

When Joe Biden talked about creating “Good paying union jobs,” he was selling a product no one wanted.

My two uncles in their 90’s said it best.  They think we need to get our manufacturing of essential materials out of China and into friendly countries like Mexico.  We need to diversify our low-cost manufacturers and decouple from China. 

Democrats want everything to be union made and have made that a pillar of their platform.  Which means eliminating every mom & pop business and consolidating those businesses with large corporate enterprises, often owned by Trump supporters. 

Indeed, in this last election cycle, Democratic candidates in Michigan were required to have their yard signs made in a union shop, even though that shop was not owned by a Democratic supporter. 

Using the local mom & pop shop was forbidden when using party funds.

Democrats refuse to acknowledge the possibility of war while President Trump leans into it

I hear rural voters state repeatedly that while they may not like President Trump’s approach, at least he understands the issue and has a plan.  On the Democratic side there is no plan. 

When faced with the choice between a bad plan and no plan, voters choose a bad plan. 

A bad plan at least has the chance to improve while it is being implemented.

Some Democrats are now promoting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the next Commander-in-Chief.  This is someone who is a vocal critic of defense spending and consistently advocates for significant cuts and a shift of spending toward domestic needs. 

She has never addressed the threat that China poses, the leap that China has made in military materiel, America’s over-dependence on China, America’s lack of ice breakers in the Arctic, or any other defense matter. 

To the rural voter, there is no one less qualified to be Commander-in-Chief than AOC given their belief in imminent war.  Democrats do not recognize the harm done to their brand simply by presenting her as an option. 

Can anyone really imagine AOC as Commander-in-Chief when we are at war with China?

Democrats continue to be in denial that rural voters control perhaps 30% of the Electoral College vote – that portion that matters. 

The Chinese, on the other hand, get it.  Their first salvo of tariffs is always in the agricultural sector.  They understand where this key bloc lies.

There are Democrats who understand defense

“[P]eople understand the importance of making microchips in America. They understand the importance of making our warships and our submarines and our planes in America.  They should understand that food is in that category. That without food, we're nothing.” 

That was Elissa Slotkin speaking to a group of 100 farmers.  She went on to say that we should insist that our military bases feed our troops with U.S. sourced food.  If we can’t keep our troops with us food during peacetime, how can we possibly expect to do so during wartime?

Her Republican leaning audience could not have been more pleased with her statements.

Democrats need to acknowledge the possibility of war

Rural voters of all stripes get excited when I socialize with them the notion that Mexico, the U.S., Canada, and Greenland need to work closely together to form a unified North American defense block. 

We shouldn’t be bullying our neighbors, we should be working with them to form a defense team.  When we find ourselves cut off from China, we need to be ready.

Why don’t Democrats talk about this?  I suggested this very thing to Kamala Harris’ team.

Because talk of the possibility of war is a bridge too far for most Democrats. 

As Senator Slotkin recently pointed out, the Democratic Party is viewed as being Weak and Woke.

In her words, Democrats need to muscle up and “f—ing retake the flag.”

Mark W. Yonkman                                                                                         16 May 2025