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Why We’re Losing the Rural Vote – the Largest Under-Represented Minority Voter Bloc

Voting Participation is high in the North

The following is a snapshot of the voting power of the 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States.  It  details the results in the last 4 elections:

Voting results in last 4 elections

The following is a snapshot of the voting power of the 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States.  It  details the results in the last 4 elections:Note that in 2020 Presidents Trump and Biden evenly split the 6 swing states in the Electoral College Homesteaded States.  President Biden could have won all of them.  But his agenda diverged very sharply from the Strength and Resilience agenda of the Obama campaign discussed in the next chapter.  And he paid the price for that. 

Minnesota and Illinois are safe states

For 2024, this group of states has lost another 4 Electoral College Votes.  Even so, winning all 8 of these states would automatically propel the Democratic candidate to the White House, even if Democrats lost all of the other swing states.  Winning these states along with the Democratic safe states would result in over 300 Electoral College votes. To the extent Democrats are willing to speak directly to rural voters (in a voice of Strength and Resilience) and are willing to talk about issues that interest the rural voter, Democrats can win all 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States.

Envision the Rural North when you say rural

This is achievable.  On the other hand, ignoring the rural voter puts all 6 swing states at risk.  Particularly as we are beginning to see weakness in the Youth, Black, and Arab American vote.  Democrats use these votes to make up for the loss of the rural vote.  That will not work in 2024.  Yet no rural voter will vote for you if you don’t speak in a language they understand and don’t talk about issues that are important to them.

 

President Obama understood the rural (and the black) voter.

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President Obama intuitively understood the personality of the rural voter in the Electoral College Homesteaded States.  Those voters want their politicians to be authentic, the United States to be strong and resilient, and people to be hardy and self-reliant.  His platform spoke to this.

 

President Obama in 2008 had 36 items in his party platform that responded to the concerns of rural voters.  He spoke in terms of making the United States stronger and more resilient and helping people become stronger and more self-reliant.  And President Obama won all 8 Electoral College States.  By 2020, the Biden platform had only 3 items left with this message.  Everything else was “nice to haves” and spoke to the donor class, but not to voters.  President Biden won 5 of the Electoral College States.  He could have won all 8. 

 

Why?  The issues didn’t change.  President Obama addressed the same issues as in the 2020 platform – he simply had a stronger and better way of addressing those issues.  The 2008 model worked.  Let’s use that as a model for 2024 as it is a voter-driven platform.

 

President Obama’s 2008 Platform

 

President Obama’s 2008 Platform “Renewing America’s Promise” was simple, clear, and had the following 4 categories:

 

I.          Renewing the American Dream

II.        Renewing American Leadership

III.       Renewing the American Community

IV.       Renewing American Democracy

 

Items I and II of his agenda were filled with issues that resonate with the rural voter.  These all involve making the U.S. stronger and more resilient, making the economy stronger for all, preparing the U.S. military for the future, and making sure the U.S. remains the dominant military force.  These were his words:

 

  • Making the economy stronger, with fewer but smarter regulations

  • Making our energy sources better and more resilient

  • Making our educational system world class

  • Investing in science and technology

  • Investing in manufacturing

  • Investing in rural internet

  • Supporting small business

  • Revamping trade policies

  • Being fiscally responsible

  • Secure the homeland

  • Ensure the US is one of the few countries with nuclear weapons

  • Expanding the military and ensure it is ready for the 21st century

 

All of these items assume that Americans are strong, resilient, and up to the task.  My father, a legacy Dutch farmer with a military background, loved the Obama agenda.  And voted for him.  Twice.

 

By 2020 strength and resilience had virtually disappeared.  President Biden’s agenda had 10 categories (which is 6 too many), only 3 of which had anything that would interest the rural Electoral College voter.  I am at a loss to explain why this happened as Democrats had a 2008 agenda that worked.  And indeed candidate Trump cribbed much of this agenda as his own.  While President Obama wanted the US economy to be stronger and more resilient, the 2020 platform led with the DNC “Land Acknowledgement.”  Rest assured that no rural Electoral College Voter would have slightest idea what this means.

 

It is instructive to look at how candidates Obama and Biden addressed the same issue in the following chart:

Obama's Strength and Resilience Agenda

The issues haven’t changed.  How we say it did.

 

We all know that how one says something is important.  Take President Biden’s comment that he wants to attack “Runaway Corporate Concentration.”  President Obama would have said “Let’s strengthen the US economy by eliminating monopolies and allowing small competitive businesses to thrive.”  All of President Biden’s objectives could be rewritten with this focus in mind.

 

The Obama platform spoke to the rural voter. It was all about Americans being strong, trying to do the right thing, and stepping up.  And President Obama was rewarded with winning all 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States.  The Biden platform was donor driven and often about aggrieved parties and trying to right past wrongs.  And very little was about making the U.S. a stronger country.  Despite these negatives, President Biden squeaked through 2020 with a win.  Imagine what could have happened with a stronger agenda and outlook. 

Veterans live in the Rural North

The 2008 platform can be the model for the next election.  And like Obama, the economy and defense need to be the first two platform items, especially as the US is in a proxy war with Russia, is supporting a war against the Palestinians and Iran, and the current situation in Taiwan is as unstable as it has ever been.  Abortion rights was a winning midterm issue, and terrific in urban areas, but it must not be overplayed, particularly if you are running for primary and backup Commander in Chief.  The Commander in Chief must address security and defense in a time of war.

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Overcoming Our Structural Disadvantages with Rural Voters

 

Chapter 4 of my book provides a recap of the inherent disadvantages facing Democrats.  Political operatives are very aware of most of these except for the recent impact of rural broadband discussed in Chapter 4.1.  I do not believe that it has yet become apparent to Democrats (or CNN) that CNN (which I have seen referred to as the “Blue Network”) recently disappeared from large swaths of the rural landscape. 

 

The issues in Chapter 4 of the book are:

 

4.1  The Disappearance of CNN and the Liberal Media Paywall Barrier

We don't get CNN or MSNBC

4.2  The Demographic Danger Facing the U.S.

 

Half of graduating (and voter eligible) 18 year olds are now non-white.  Yet on an effective basis, the Electoral College voters who really matter are 85% white and 30% rural.  Our country is at a fragile transition point where there is a complete disconnect between the population at large (and hence the popular vote), and Electoral College voters who actually make the decision on who will become President.

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4.3   The Many Masters of the Democrats

 

Political operatives are well aware that Democrats have the disadvantage of having different and conflicting constituencies. And they care about these audiences. The 3 Democratic audiences are 1) donors and their core base; 2) the population at large, the majority of which do not vote in primaries and many of whom never vote at all; and 3) the people in swing states who actually vote and who actually determine presidential elections. 

Lead your base, don't follow them

4.4  Safe States are Irrelevant to the Vote, but that is where the Donors are

 

The only reason to campaign in Minnesota or Illinois is to hone your message for your campaign in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

 

4.5  The Creep of the Urban-Rural Divide and the Disappearance of Diversity

 

The following is the makeup of the 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States which are my focus:

 

Illinois:                        76% White      20% Rural

Indiana:                       84% White      30% Rural

Iowa:                           90% White      36% Rural

Michigan:                    78% White      20% Rural

Minnesota:                  82% White      20% Rural

Ohio:                           80% White      25% Rural

Pennsylvania:              80% White      26% Rural

Wisconsin                   84% White      30% Rural

 

Compare this to where many decision makers live:

 

Los Angeles:               45% White      0% Rural

New York City:          40% White      0% Rural

Washington, D.C.:      46% White      0% Rural

 

Unintentionally, diversity of backgrounds, professions, and thought is beginning to disappear on Democratic staffs. 

 

4.6   As We Know, Policy Doesn’t Win Elections - How you Speak Does

Win in 2024 Reclaim the Rural Vote by Mark Yonkman

LET'S TALK

Tel: 231-878-5161

Stakes for the 2024 election could not be higher. The future of our democracy is on the ballot. But Democrats won’t win if they can’t speak effectively to the rural voter.


President Obama proved it can be done in the modern era.   We can do it again.


I’ve had the unique opportunity to experience both sides of the urban-rural divide. Growing up on my family’s farm in Michigan and spending my professional career as an attorney in urban settings has given me the ability to understand and appreciate both perspectives.


My goal is to help Democratic campaigns to effectively reach and persuade the rural voter and to help them consciously build a rural function into their campaign staff to reach this under-represented minority. I’m pleased to make myself available as a resource to support political campaigns in the all-important rural homesteaded states.

Mark W. Yonkman
Democratic Operative's Handbook

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