President Obama understood the rural voter and set the table for future Democratic Candidates
President Obama intuitively understood the personality of the rural voter in the 8 Electoral College Homesteaded States in the Upper Midwest – where the bulk of the swing state Electoral College votes lie. Those voters want their politicians to be authentic, the United States to be strong and resilient, and people to be hardy and self-reliant. His platform spoke to this. And he won all 8 Homesteaded states in the Upper Midwest. President Obama’s agenda was as good as it gets:
· Making the economy stronger, with fewer but smarter regulations
· Making our energy sources better and more resilient
· Making our educational system world class
· Investing in science and technology
· Investing in manufacturing
· Investing in rural internet
· Supporting small business
· Revamping trade policies
· Being fiscally responsible
· Secure the homeland
· Ensure the US is one of the few countries with nuclear weapons
· Expanding the military and ensure it is ready for the 21st century
President Obama in 2008 had 36 items in his party platform that responded to the concerns of rural voters. This was all wiped out beginning in 2016 when he left office. In my book, Reclaim the Rural Vote, and being naïve and new to this, I stated “I am at a loss to explain why this happened as Democrats had a 2008 agenda that worked.” Candidate Trump wasn’t so naïve. He cribbed much of Obama’s agenda as his own, including his slogan. To the rural voter, Obama’s “Renewing the American Dream” meant the same thing as “Make America Great Again.” Midwestern rural voters think America was great when its backbone was the family farm. It had nothing to do with race.
President Obama was also inclusive. Even to the extent of inviting Republicans to join his administration. His Democratic National Committee reflected this (under Howard Dean). Look at the distribution of the 9 members of the DNC under Obama:
The DNC was as close to perfect as possible regarding gender and race. If anything, the gaping hole was zero representation of the rural or Midwestern voter, who holds the key to winning the 8 Upper Midwestern states.
Since 2008, rural voters in the Upper Midwest moved left – right to the center. But Democrats had the wheel cranked as far left as they could go – and by design.
How did Democrats respond to the near perfection of Obama’s agenda and Dean’s DNC?
They veered hard left and embarked on a path to have the Democratic Party not reflect voters at all. Rather than having Howard Dean continue to lead the DNC, Symone Sanders famously said “In my opinion we don't need white people [which is 80% of voting power] leading the Democratic party . . . the Democratic party is diverse, and it should be reflected as so in leadership and throughout the staff, at the highest levels. From the vice chairs to the secretaries all the way down to the people working in the offices at the DNC." She specifically called out for Jaime Harrison, from the South, which Democrats never win, and to the “millennials and brown folks."
It pains me to hear someone on Team Female and Black, which is my whole family, argue that what we need to do is move away from perfect diversity and representation – to a lopsided organization that doesn’t reflect voters. No one pushed back. No one argued for some rural representation.
Instead, she was rewarded by CNN hiring her as a Democratic strategist and political commentator. MSNBC hired her to host The Weekend. She joined the Biden campaign and later became Chief Spokesperson for Kamala Harris. Wow.
Indeed, the DNC then embarked on its special interest and Southern strategy. The next 6 DNC chairs reflected the South, Blacks, and Latinos only:
Despite the fact that the black vote represents probably less than 8% of the swing state vote and Latinos about 8%. For example where I live, turnout was 75-80%. It was 49% in Detroit. Rural voters in the Upper Midwest simply turn out at much higher rates. The opposite is true in the rural South.
My back of the envelope math indicates that in the 7 swing states, rural voters control about 33% of the voting power. 15 years is a long time to go without anyone leading the team to ensure that rural, Midwest, and military voices are represented.
Indeed, the DNC during that time embarked on scrubbing diversity from its ranks. I looked at as many DNC resumes as I could for staffers in 2024. My information was limited and not complete, but what stood out is that this was the least diverse group of people I have seen in a long time. Very few people had any life experience at all. Out of the top 36 people where I could discern some demographic information, look at the following number of people with the right background:
*These are back of the napkin numbers based on the 7 swing states, adjusted for voter turnout rates.
I couldn’t find anything in anyone’s background that reflected that being pro-life was important to them. It doesn’t mean that it didn’t exist, though I would be shocked if there was anyone who was pro-life on the DNC staff. Keeping his hand on the wheel cranked all the way to the left, Jaime Harrison even refused to meet with Democrats for Life. The first chair to ever so refuse. A candidate like Jimmy Carter who was personally opposed to abortion is no longer welcome in the Democratic Party.
Can you imagine running an organization that has zero representation of a third of your voters?
To put the rural category in a graphic that we have all seen:
• 97% of US land mass is rural
• 33% of swing state voting power is rural
• The DNC contains 0% rural representation
Does anyone see a problem here?
Things the DNC wouldn’t and couldn’t know
That Kamala Harris starting her abortion tour on the Friday before Christmas was viewed as offensive and hostile.
That there are pro-life voters who also think abortion should be legal.
That in the rural Midwest voters are perfectly capable making a copy of their Driver’s License.
That tariffs are a boon for the small farmer.
That excessive regulation is rural voters’ biggest concern.
That Snackflation was viewed as urban elites demanding low cost unhealthy luxury processed foods no one should eat.
That if we didn’t push for larger unhealthy processed snack foods maybe we wouldn’t have to subsidize insulin.
That no one wants a union job.
That significant portions of the rural Upper Midwest do not have any significant union presence.
That we don’t like being called working class.
That having trans day on Easter was offensive.
That guns are sporting equipment.
Conclusion
I don’t think the loss to Republicans is as complicated as people make it out to be. It wasn’t messaging – the messaging was quite clear: Democrats won’t buy anything from the rural swing states – union made only. Don’t bother applying to the DNC – we don’t want it run by white people, and certainly not any uppity rural people. There is no one on our staff who looks like you. Don’t mind us if we label you and call you names. Forget about having any of your issues front and center. Kamala didn’t even bring up rural broadband, which has been a boon for us. She talked a lot about the Arab vote, which is less than 1% of the swing state vote.
When I started a non-profit with a federal judge in Denver, Law School Yes We Can! to create a pipeline of underrepresented students in college who might be interested in getting into law school, I did it because I thought it is important that the judiciary, and legal profession generally, reflect the population. We need a pipeline of black and brown people to make that happen. We didn’t do it just to benefit certain minority students or to over-represent anyone in the profession.
The DNC, unfortunately, turned into a patronage system, hurting candidates up and down the ballot.