How Slotkin won Michigan while Harris lost it
From my point of view Elissa Slotkin ran the perfect campaign to win an Upper Midwestern swing state. She discarded identity politics, refused to engage in the woke agenda, hired staff who looked like her voters, talked about issues that voters were actually concerned about, and visited all of rural Michigan. And Elissa oozed authenticity – the #1 key to winning.
Elissa didn’t run as a woman
It was heartening to hear a caller on the Smerconish program refer to Elissa as the “CIA agent” who won the Michigan senate race. Perfect – her qualifications got her elected, not her sex.
Elissa is an ex-CIA agent who went on tours in Afghanistan with the military – carrying a gun in combat zones, who worked in the Bush and Obama administrations, and whose family had a family farm. She never talked about being a woman, despite the hardships she certainly faced.
Kamala’s allies - the press, pundits, PACs and special interest groups, harped on her identity and sex. What the Harris campaign should have done is shut down that dialogue.
The Slotkin campaign visited all of rural Michigan
95% of Michigan’s landmass is considered rural. Elissa and her team visited all of it, including my township of 256 households.
My county Democratic chair asked me if someone would be willing to host an event for Slotkin on their farm. I was hesitant at first. I didn’t know her.
I knew that the Michigan Farm Bureau had interviewed both Slotkin and Rogers so I watched the interviews. She knocked the ball out of the park by focusing on national defense, agriculture and eliminating burdensome regulation.
I prepared an analysis of the Farm Bureau interviews and gave it to the Bureau. I also gave them my opinion that Slotkin won the debate hands down, that she would be the one to be elected, that she would end up on the agriculture committee and that we needed an ally like her in the Senate.
I agreed to talk to her campaign manager.
The Slotkin campaign hired staff who have backgrounds like her voters
I was delighted to find that the campaign manager who contacted me was raised on a family farm and served as a pilot in the U.S. Air Force. Those are exactly the qualifications you need if you want to win the Electoral College vote – here, the ex-military farm boy. He and I were perfectly aligned on the issues and it would make Slotkin an easy sell.
I would think that with $1 billion to spend, Harris would have a handful of ex-military farm boys from each of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on her staff.
I told Elissa’s campaign manager that I had no interest in hosting an event just for Democrats. I would be inviting all Republican Trump voters. He said that would be terrific.
I also told him I didn’t want to rub my neighbors’ noses in an issue they lost in Michigan. If she wanted to talk about abortion, I couldn’t support the event.
Why? I was asked to put a pro-choice sign on my farm. I said I would never do that. I live on a farm, everyone knows who I am, and everyone would see the sign. I also have two pregnant neighbors. I would be asked why I have that sign-up. What would I tell them?
No one had an answer for me.
Several members of the Democratic Party took down their pro-choice signs after that discussion.
He assured me that abortion was not one of Slotkin’s issues.
I also wouldn’t do anything unless I knew her personally. I wrangled an invite to an event they were hosting in Traverse City, which is the nearest big urban city to me, and also where I was born.
An army general introduced her at that event. He sat next to me and we had a nice conversation. Her speech was everything that I wanted to hear. I talked to her for some time and was very impressed. How could this get any better?
One of my relatives agreed to host the event on their farm and it was a smashing success. My Farm Bureau analysis circulated in my farming community and several Trump voters told my uncle that it was persuasive enough that they would split their ticket and vote for Trump and Elissa. And farmers talk to a lot of people.
The important thing is that when I went around to all of my Republican neighbors, they were universally impressed that a Senate candidate was even willing to come to our little rural community. The fact that she had someone on her staff with common sense (i.e. an ex-military farm boy who was just like them), was huge. I never received a negative comment in any of those conversations.
Elissa even came in for a second event in the nearest city to us a few weeks later and that was also a huge success.
Harris never visited a single rural area. She did go to Traverse City, which is viewed as the big urban cosmopolitan city near us. They have Audi, BMW and Mercedes dealerships. It is not rural.
Elissa was authentic and talked about issues that actually concern Midwestern rural voters
Elissa talked about farming and national defense. It was credible – she was authentic. She lived that life. She underplayed her experience. She never said she was middle class. She didn’t label herself. You saw who she was and made your own determination.
When she said she wanted a secure border, with a wall if necessary, you believed her. She worked in both the Bush and Obama administrations and carried a weapon in active combat zones in Afghanistan. Of course she wants a secure border. You could see her as a Commander-in-Chief.
She specifically said she was not focused on any of the woke issues.
She didn’t want to ban guns. She just wanted gun safety for students.
She didn’t talk about unions – we don’t have unions in most of mid and northern rural Michigan. A point lost on the Democratic party. I have never heard anyone say to their child “What I really want for you when you grow up is a good paying union job in a factory, where you will have two bosses.” What people really want is to own their own business.
Instead Elissa talked about defense, agriculture and eliminating burdensome regulation. The perfect trifecta in the rural Upper Midwest.
Conclusion
Right before the election I said to her campaign manager that I thought that even if Harris lost, I was still confident Slotkin would win. She was the perfect candidate for the Upper Midwest.
And she won despite having the Michigan Democratic Party and the DNC arrayed against her message. Part III will begin to address those.
Mark W. Yonkman 11 November 2024